2025 Collection Introduction, II2025 in Outline
Written retrospectively in October 2026, using only evidence available through December 31, 2025.
The year at a glance
In 2025 artificial intelligence stopped being one story and became several running at once. The models themselves changed three times over: a first wave of reasoning models in the winter, a second in the summer led by GPT-5, and a third from November, when GPT-5.1, Gemini 3 and Claude Opus 4.5 arrived, followed in December by GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Flash. Around them grew everything else the year was about: agents that act on a user’s behalf, data centers measured in gigawatts and financed in hundreds of billions of dollars, governments using chips as instruments of foreign policy, courts deciding what training on other people’s work is worth, and a steady stream of evidence about what these systems do when no one is checking.
The year opened with a shock. On January 20 DeepSeek released R1, an open-weight reasoning model that matched OpenAI’s o1 on its reported benchmarks, and a week later Nvidia lost about $590 billion of market value in a day. The year’s later months answered the question that shock raised: the spending did not slow. By October Nvidia was the first company worth $5 trillion, and in November OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Amazon announced or restated large, multiyear commitments to computing, infrastructure and US investment.
This outline, which follows the year introduction, maps that landscape topic by topic, from January through December, drawing on events checked for the monthly chapters, plus a few outside sources listed in its retrospective section; each month’s own introduction follows the same threads in closer detail.
Models: three waves in one year
The frontier turned over three times. The first wave, between January and March, made reasoning the defining feature: DeepSeek’s R1 and OpenAI’s o3-mini in January, xAI’s Grok 3 in February, then Claude 3.7 Sonnet with a thinking budget developers could set and Gemini 2.5 Pro, built to reason before answering. OpenAI’s GPT-4.5, released the same week as Claude 3.7, went the other way: a large model sold on scaled-up pre-training rather than added reasoning.
The second wave ran from April to August. OpenAI’s o3 learned to choose and combine tools while it reasoned; Anthropic released Claude Opus 4 and Sonnet 4 in May and Opus 4.1 in August; xAI released Grok 4 in July; and on August 7 GPT-5 arrived as a system that routed each request between a fast model and a deeper one.
The third wave came in November: GPT-5.1, Grok 4.1, Gemini 3 Pro and Claude Opus 4.5 within three weeks of one another, each emphasizing coding, long-running agent work and conversational style alongside benchmark claims. December extended the wave: after Sam Altman declared a “code red” over Gemini 3, OpenAI released GPT-5.2 less than a month after GPT-5.1, and Google followed with Gemini 3 Deep Think for its top subscribers and Gemini 3 Flash.
Across the waves, reasoning became a setting rather than a product. Gemini 2.5 Flash let developers budget its thinking in April, GPT-5 chose for the user in August, and GPT-5.1 varied its effort with the difficulty of the task. Media generation followed its own path to sound: Google’s Veo 3 produced video with dialogue in May, OpenAI’s Sora 2 and Google’s Veo 3.1 extended that in the autumn, and by September generated clips with sound were inside YouTube Shorts. World models developed along several paths, including environment generation, physical prediction and robot planning: Nvidia’s Cosmos platform for robotics in January, Meta’s V-JEPA 2 in June and Google DeepMind’s Genie 3 research preview in August.
The releases cluster in three bands: reasoning models from January to March, tool use and routing from April to August, and a new generation from four laboratories in November, extended by OpenAI and Google in December.
Open weights: the gap that kept closing
Downloadable models were the year’s great leveler of developers’ access, if not of frontier training compute, and most of the pressure came from China. DeepSeek set the pace: R1 and Janus-Pro in January, a week of open infrastructure tools in February, V3-0324 in March, V3.1 in August, V3.1-Terminus in September and V3.2-Exp, with a new sparse-attention design and lower prices, in September’s last days. Alibaba’s Qwen and Wan teams, MiniMax, Z.ai’s GLM-4.5 and Moonshot’s Kimi K2 and Kimi K2 Thinking, the last two with a trillion parameters each, kept Chinese laboratories at or near the front of the open field all year. In December DeepSeek released V3.2, Z.ai GLM-4.7 and Nvidia its Nemotron 3 open models, released with three trillion tokens of open training datasets.
The American response came in stages. Microsoft released Phi-4’s weights in January and offered DeepSeek’s R1 on its own cloud within 10 days of its launch. Meta reported 1.2 billion Llama downloads in April but lost most of the model’s original authors by May. OpenAI postponed its first open-weight model in July and released gpt-oss under the Apache 2.0 license in August. Open science pushed openness further: Ai2 released Olmo 3 with its training data, code and intermediate checkpoints, Switzerland’s Apertus documented its data and methods, and DeepSeek’s R1 research passed peer review at Nature in September.
Openness also raised the year’s first policy alarms. Within two weeks of R1’s release, Italy restricted DeepSeek’s use of personal data and NASA blocked it on agency systems; South Korea followed in February, and US senators proposed in June to exclude AI from foreign adversaries from federal use. An open model could be downloaded by anyone, and governments spent the year deciding what that meant for the service built on it.
Agents: from a preview to a workplace
The year’s most repeated promise was that AI would stop answering and start doing. In January Sam Altman suggested agents could join the workforce that year, and OpenAI added scheduled tasks to ChatGPT and previewed Operator, an agent that used a web browser by clicking and typing; deep research followed within weeks. Manus showed a general agent in March, Amazon’s Nova Act learned browser actions at the end of March, and in July OpenAI combined its browsing and research tools into ChatGPT agent, working on a virtual computer of its own.
The infrastructure for agents grew alongside them. Google’s Agent2Agent protocol in April let agents from different providers coordinate; Salesforce, IBM, Datadog and Databricks built agents into business software; and in October OpenAI’s AgentKit and Anthropic’s reusable Agent Skills gave developers ways to assemble and equip them. Agents also reached the browser itself: Gemini moved into Chrome, for subscribers in May and for all US desktop users in September, and in October Perplexity made its Comet browser free and OpenAI released its own, ChatGPT Atlas. Commerce followed, with checkout inside ChatGPT for purchases from Etsy sellers. In December Anthropic made Agent Skills an open standard, Google opened its Deep Research agent to developers, Adobe put Photoshop and Acrobat inside ChatGPT, and Manus, whose agent had drawn attention in March, joined Meta.
Coding became the proving ground. METR estimated in March that the length of tasks agents could complete was doubling about every seven months, and the products tracked that curve: OpenAI’s Codex CLI in April, Google’s Jules out of beta in August, GPT-5.1-Codex-Max built to work across many context windows and Google’s Antigravity workspace for supervising agents in November, and GPT-5.2-Codex in December. The limits were visible too. When Anthropic reported in June that it had let Claude run a small office shop for about a month, the shop had lost money through persistent pricing errors, a reminder that an agent’s capability on a task is not the same as its judgment over time.
Compute and capital: the gigawatt economy
The defining number of the year was not a benchmark score but a unit of power. In January the plans were still counted in dollars: Microsoft expected to spend about $80 billion on data centers in its fiscal year, Meta $60 billion to $65 billion, and Stargate, backed by SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle and MGX, intended to invest $500 billion over four years.
By July Meta was describing a cluster designed to grow toward five gigawatts, and by autumn whole agreements were denominated in gigawatts: at least 10 with Nvidia in September, 6 with AMD and 10 with Broadcom in October, and a Stargate program of nearly 7 gigawatts across its US sites.
The money followed. SoftBank agreed to lead up to $40 billion of new OpenAI funding in March; Meta and Microsoft raised their capital budgets again in July; Samsung and SK Hynix signed on to supply Stargate’s memory in October. November brought several large announcements and restatements, covering different periods and purposes: a $38 billion OpenAI agreement with AWS, Anthropic’s $50 billion data-center plan and $30 billion Azure commitment, Meta’s $600 billion US pledge, first stated at the White House in September, and Amazon’s plan for up to $50 billion of government computing. Revenue grew too, but on a smaller scale: OpenAI’s annualized revenue was reported at about $10 billion in June and $12 billion by the end of July. SoftBank completed its share of the March round on December 26: $30 billion of its own, with $11 billion from co-investors.
Nvidia’s year traced the mood. It lost about $590 billion of market value on January 27 over DeepSeek, regained the title of most valuable company in June, reported $46.7 billion of quarterly revenue in August and $57 billion in November, and on October 29 became the first company worth $5 trillion. Every large laboratory, meanwhile, tried to reduce its dependence on any single supplier: OpenAI designed chips with Broadcom and bought capacity from AWS; Anthropic spread its models across Google’s TPUs, Amazon and Azure; and Google offered its Ironwood TPU to outside customers. Nvidia, for its part, reached beyond chips in December, acquiring SchedMD, developer of the Slurm scheduler, and licensing Groq’s inference technology as Groq’s founder moved to Nvidia.
Chips and geopolitics: hardware as foreign policy
Washington changed its approach to AI chips twice in the year. In January the outgoing administration issued an interim rule controlling exports of advanced chips and some model weights, sorting countries into tiers; in May the new administration moved to rescind it before its main compliance requirements began, calling it “overly complex, overly bureaucratic.” Days later President Trump’s Gulf trip produced chip deals for Nvidia and AMD with Saudi Arabia’s Humain and a five-gigawatt AI campus in Abu Dhabi, and in November Microsoft said it had received licenses to ship the equivalent of 60,400 A100 chips, as Nvidia’s newer GB300s, to its data centers in the UAE.
China was the harder case. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang called US export controls on China “a failure” in May, saying Nvidia’s share of the Chinese market had fallen from 95 percent to 50. In August Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay the US government 15 percent of their revenue from certain chip sales to China in return for export licenses. Beijing moved the other way: in November Reuters reported guidance requiring new state-funded data centers to use only Chinese chips.
Other governments made computing a national project. France pitched its nuclear power to AI investors at February’s Paris summit, the European Commission launched InvestAI with funds for AI gigafactories, Britain adopted an AI Opportunities Action Plan, and Sam Altman met South Korea’s president in Seoul as Samsung and SK Hynix joined Stargate. The question by year’s end was less whether a country wanted AI computing than whose chips it would run on and on whose terms.
Governance: four centers, four approaches
Washington spent the year replacing one AI policy with another. President Trump revoked his predecessor’s 2023 order in January and asked for an action plan within 180 days; OpenAI and others submitted proposals in March; and America’s AI Action Plan arrived in July with more than 90 actions under three pillars, innovation, infrastructure and international diplomacy and security, alongside an order against “woke AI” in federal procurement.
An education order followed in April, and in November the Genesis Mission directed the Department of Energy to build a platform for AI-assisted science. The government also became a customer, with OpenAI and Anthropic offering their tools to federal agencies for $1 in August and Meta’s Llama made available through the General Services Administration in September.
The states pushed in the opposite direction. A proposed 10-year federal ban on enforcing state AI laws drew opposition from 40 attorneys general in May and from Senator Edward Markey in June, and California passed SB 53 in September, requiring large frontier developers to disclose their safety practices and report critical incidents; Governor Newsom signed it on September 29. Washington answered on December 11 with an executive order directing the Justice Department to challenge state AI laws that conflicted with federal policy. State attorneys general also led on children’s safety, with a letter from 44 of them in August and a Texas investigation into Meta and Character.AI.
Europe built a rulebook. The AI Act’s first prohibitions applied from February 2, the Commission published its AI Continent Action Plan in April and a voluntary Code of Practice for general-purpose models in July, and obligations for those models took effect on August 2. China combined industrial policy with control: the State Council’s “AI Plus” guidelines set adoption targets for 2027 and 2030, and Premier Li Qiang proposed a world AI cooperation organization in July, observing that global AI governance was “still fragmented.” The international summits reflected the split: at Paris in February, Europe spoke of investment and safeguards while JD Vance warned against regulation. December added two more models of oversight: Britain’s AI Security Institute published its first public report on frontier-model trends, and China proposed rules for AI services that imitate human companionship.
Law and content: what training is worth
The courts gave their first answers on generative-AI training in June. In Bartz v. Anthropic, Judge William Alsup held that training Claude on books was fair use, “exceedingly transformative,” but that keeping a library of pirated copies was not; two days later Judge Vince Chhabria ruled for Meta in Kadrey v. Meta, with a different view of market harm. The pirated-library claim did not reach trial: in September Anthropic agreed to settle it for at least $1.5 billion.
The lawsuits did not stop. News and magazine publishers sued Cohere in February, Warner Bros. Discovery sued Midjourney in September over images of its characters, and music publishers accused OpenAI, Suno, Udio and Mistral of “wilful, commercial-scale” infringement the same month. Rivalry reached the courts as well: OpenAI rejected Elon Musk’s $97.4 billion offer in February and countersued him in April, and xAI sued Apple and OpenAI in August over the App Store and Apple’s ChatGPT integration.
Alongside the cases, a licensing market began to form. OpenAI had promised creators a way to opt out of training by 2025 and had not delivered it as the year began. Instead, deals multiplied: The New York Times licensed its content to Amazon in May, Cloudflare tested charging AI crawlers per request in July, Meta licensed Midjourney’s image technology in August, Universal Music agreed with Stability AI in October to build music tools on licensed training data, and in December Disney announced an agreement to license more than 200 characters for OpenAI’s Sora and a planned $1 billion equity investment, subject to definitive agreements, approvals and closing conditions. By the end of the year, paying for content had become one of the ways AI companies answered the question the courts had only begun to settle.
Trust, safety and misuse: what the systems actually did
The year produced a running record of systems behaving in ways their makers had not intended. Apple paused AI summaries of news alerts in January after they misrepresented reports. At the end of April OpenAI rolled back a GPT-4o update that had become excessively agreeable, saying it had weighted short-term user feedback too heavily, and xAI blamed an unauthorized prompt change for Grok inserting claims about South Africa into unrelated conversations. Palisade Research, which had reported in May that some models resisted being shut down even when told to allow it, published updated results in October, and in November researchers found that harmful requests written as poems slipped past safety filters across 25 models.
The laboratories responded with frameworks and research. Anthropic tested Constitutional Classifiers in a public jailbreak challenge in February; Google DeepMind set out its approach to AGI safety and OpenAI revised its Preparedness Framework in April; OpenAI studied why models guess rather than admit uncertainty in September; at the end of October Anthropic reported limited evidence that Claude could sometimes notice changes to its own internal states; and in November OpenAI trained sparse networks whose computations could be partly traced. Outside the laboratories, the questions were sharper: a study in April challenged how the Chatbot Arena leaderboard ranked models, Yoshua Bengio founded LawZero in June, a public statement in October called for conditions on building superintelligence, and protesters went on hunger strike outside Anthropic and Google DeepMind in September. In December Geoffrey Hinton said AI had progressed even faster than he expected and that he was more worried than when he left Google.
Two kinds of harm moved from hypothesis to record. Children came first in August, when Reuters reported internal Meta rules that had allowed romantic conversations with minors; state attorneys general, a Texas investigation, a Federal Trade Commission inquiry into companion chatbots in September and OpenAI’s Teen Safety Blueprint in November followed, and in December China’s draft rules targeted emotional manipulation and dependence in human-like AI. Misuse came second: in July an AI-cloned voice impersonated Secretary of State Marco Rubio to foreign ministers, and in November Anthropic reported an espionage campaign that had used Claude Code against about 30 organizations, which it attributed to a Chinese state-sponsored group. A bipartisan bill to raise penalties for AI-assisted fraud cited the Rubio case.
Science: from contests to discoveries
AI reached gold-medal level in two of the hardest competitions people set for one another. In July both OpenAI and Google DeepMind reported gold-medal scores of 35 out of 42 at the International Mathematical Olympiad, OpenAI’s graded by former medalists it engaged and Google DeepMind’s certified by the competition’s coordinators. In September an advanced Gemini solved 10 of 12 problems from the ICPC programming finals. Harder tests kept appearing to measure what remained: ARC-AGI-2 in March, on which current systems scored low.
AI also began to contribute to research itself. Google DeepMind’s AlphaEvolve searched for better algorithms in May; OpenAI and Retro Biosciences, who had reported redesigned proteins in January, published the details in August; Delphi forecast the risk of more than 1,000 diseases in September; and in October an MIT model helped explain how a new antibiotic for gut disease works, while a Gemma-based model proposed a route to make tumors more visible to the immune system. Systems that propose and test hypotheses, such as Google’s co-scientist, drew enough attention that a conference for AI-authored research, Agents4Science, was scheduled for October 22. In November an AI surrogate let researchers simulate the Milky Way star by star.
Institutions followed the results. Isomorphic Labs raised $600 million in March and was preparing for human trials by July; the National Science Foundation and Nvidia funded open models for science in August; and the Genesis Mission in November made AI-assisted science a national program; in December the Energy Department signed agreements with 24 organizations to advance it. Most of these results were reported by their developers, and their next test was replication by others.
Work, companies and talent
The argument about jobs moved from forecasts to company plans. Mark Zuckerberg predicted in January that AI would “probably” do a mid-level engineer’s work that year; in May Dario Amodei warned it could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years; in June Andy Jassy told Amazon staff to expect a smaller corporate workforce; and in July Satya Nadella addressed Microsoft’s job cuts, which had passed 15,000 that year, in a memo that set them beside record investment in AI. OpenAI announced a jobs platform and AI certifications in September, and Sam Altman put AI’s eventual share of the economy’s tasks at 30 to 40 percent. Public institutions adopted the tools too: the FDA deployed an assistant for its reviewers in June, and a White House task force promoted AI education from April on.
Talent became a market of its own. At Meta, Joelle Pineau, head of its research group, announced her departure in April, and most of Llama’s original authors were reported gone by May; it then invested in Scale AI and brought in its founder, Alexandr Wang, in June, folded its AI work into Meta Superintelligence Labs at the end of June, hired Apple’s head of foundation models and paused hiring in August. In November Yann LeCun was reported to be planning his own exit, and in December Apple reorganized its AI leadership as John Giannandrea prepared to retire. Elsewhere Ilya Sutskever took charge of Safe Superintelligence, Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines raised $2 billion before shipping a product, Google paid a reported $2.4 billion to bring Windsurf’s leaders into DeepMind, and Perplexity was valued at $18 billion.
Corporate structure was contested along with people. OpenAI kept its nonprofit in control of a restructured company in May after rejecting Musk’s offer in February; xAI absorbed X in March; and Anthropic cut off OpenAI’s access to Claude in August, saying its engineers had used Claude’s coding tools before GPT-5’s launch in breach of its terms.
Reading the year back
Based on a coding of all 354 printed entries, made separately by Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Astra and then adjudicated, and the panel’s 893 selections.
The record of 2025 changed character as the year went on. It began as a log of releases and ended as a ledger of commitments, and most of it rests on what companies said about themselves.
From releases to commitments. Releases were still the largest single kind of story, but their share fell from 50 percent of entries in the first quarter to 40 percent in the last. Deals and investments rose from 14 to 24 percent. By the fourth quarter one entry in four was a contract, a funding round or a capacity pledge, and about half of the year’s 68 deal entries (37) described commitments still to be delivered: spending plans, letters of intent, deals awaiting closing, gigawatts to come.
One company at the center. OpenAI appears in 69 entries, a fifth of the year, against 45 for Google and 28 each for Meta and the US government. Its deal entries name 17 partners, from SoftBank and Oracle to Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Amazon, Samsung, SK Hynix, Foxconn and Disney. Nvidia sits at the other hub: half of its 10 deal entries involved a government or a state-owned partner. These counts describe what the panel chose to report, not the market itself.
What companies said. Of the 354 entries, 274 (77 percent) rest on announcements by the companies or governments involved, 40 on press reporting from sources, 15 on official or court records and only 25 (7 percent) on independent research or evaluation. Research entries doubled in share across the year, but even the year’s breakthroughs were mostly reported by the laboratories that made them.
What the panel did not see. Incidents and lawsuits together make up 5 percent of entries. Several stories that were widely reported at the time never appeared on any panelist’s list, among them:
- Meta’s release of Llama 4 on April 5;
- xAI’s removal of Grok posts praising Hitler in July;
- the wrongful-death lawsuit Raine v. OpenAI, filed August 26;
- Judge Amit Mehta’s September 2 ruling on remedies in the Google search case, which said generative AI had “changed the course of this case”;
- OpenAI’s completed recapitalization on October 28;
- Character.AI’s decision on October 29 to end open-ended chats for users under 18.
Two of these were harms involving the makers of panel models: the Grok posts and the Raine lawsuit. The pattern fits the panel’s other habit: Grok chose xAI stories at more than twice the rate of other panelists, while harms close to home went unpicked.
Agreement was thin. Two in three printed entries (243) were chosen by a single model. Where models agreed, they had sometimes seen one another’s lists, so agreement is weaker evidence than it looks.
Propositions to revisit
These are my findings stated as propositions, to be revisited in the 2026 volume, due in early 2027. Each covers the whole of 2026, through December 31. As the editor has set for both year introductions, this essay is written as of December 31, 2025: it uses only evidence published by then, and nothing that happened in 2026 is used as evidence or allowed to shape what is said. I wrote it in October 2026, and readers should know that. When I revisit each proposition, I will say whether it is supported, mixed, weakened or unresolved, and whether it still mattered.
| ID | Proposition from 2025 | Expected by December 31, 2026 | What would weaken it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude-2025-P1 | Announced commitments ran far ahead of delivered capacity; about half of deal entries (37 of 68) were commitments still to be delivered. | For most of the gigawatt-scale projects printed in 2025 (OpenAI with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom; the Stargate sites), reported operating capacity will fall short of the schedules announced in 2025. | Most of those projects report capacity on or ahead of their announced schedules. |
| Claude-2025-P2 | OpenAI was the center of the year’s deal network, with 17 partners in printed deals. | OpenAI will remain a party to more of the largest newly announced compute agreements than any other AI developer. | Another developer leads in such agreements, or OpenAI materially scales back or renegotiates its commitments. |
| Claude-2025-P3 | The record rested mainly on self-report: 77 percent of entries came from announcements and 7 percent from independent evaluation. | In the series’ 2026 posts, independent evaluation will remain the basis of fewer than 15 percent of selections, unless the method changes. | The share rises above 15 percent without a change in method. |
| Claude-2025-P4 | The panel underweighted harms close to its makers, and at least one model favored its maker’s news. | At least three of the ten most widely reported AI incidents or lawsuits of 2026, on an outside list compiled before comparison, will be absent from the panel’s selections. | The panel selects at least eight of the ten. |
| Claude-2025-P5 | Authority over AI rules was contested between Washington and the states throughout 2025. | No federal statute broadly preempting state AI laws will be enacted; the conflict will continue in courts and executive action. | Congress enacts such a statute. |
Claude-2025-P3 and P4 concern the series’ own record and will be judged from the 2026 posts; P1, P2 and P5 concern events in the field and will be judged against outside evidence.
Three further questions compare the 2026 record with 2025 rather than forecast anything, and the next volume will answer them from its own coding: whether deals stayed near a fifth of entries, whether OpenAI remained the most-named organization, and whether research kept rising as a share.
GPT’s introduction records its own propositions separately. Where its essay and mine agree, that is not independent confirmation.
Sources for events outside the chapters, opened October 27, 2026:
- Llama 4: The Letter Two, April 5, 2025
- Grok posts: Channels Television, July 9, 2025
- Raine v. OpenAI: Claims Journal, August 26, 2025
- Google search remedies: Fortune, September 2, 2025
- OpenAI recapitalization: TechCrunch, October 28, 2025
- Character.AI: Fortune, October 29, 2025
Open questions at year’s end
The year closed with more commitments than answers. Five questions ran under every chapter, and none was settled by the end of December:
- Will the spending pay? Commitments ran to hundreds of billions of dollars and many gigawatts, much of it for capacity still to be built, while the largest laboratories’ reported revenues were measured in tens of billions.
- Who sets the rules? Washington favored investment and a light federal hand, the states and Europe wrote rules of their own, and China tied AI to industrial targets. December’s order to challenge state laws showed how unsettled that division remained.
- What is training on others’ work worth? Two rulings, one large settlement and a growing set of licenses gave partial answers; the suits against Midjourney, Cohere and others were still open.
- How far can agents be trusted? Agents could carry coding tasks across many context windows, browse and buy, yet the year’s record of agreeable models, misleading summaries, shutdown resistance and misuse showed how much depended on the checks around them.
- Who can check the claims? Benchmarks, leaderboards and gold medals were mostly reported by the developers whose systems they measured; independent verification, as at the IMO, was the exception.
The column’s editor closed its last issue of the year with a reminder that applies to all of them: “LLMs don’t have to agree with each other, or behave the same way. As to truth or facts, our readers will have to figure out themselves.”
Selected sources
Primary or contemporaneous sources for the main figures above, drawn from the monthly chapters' source notes. The chapters cite a source for every printed entry.
- Models. DeepSeek, DeepSeek-R1 Release, January 20, 2025. OpenAI, Introducing GPT-5, August 7, 2025. Google, A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3, November 18, 2025. Anthropic, Introducing Claude Opus 4.5, November 24, 2025. OpenAI, Introducing GPT-5.2, December 11, 2025.
- Open weights. OpenAI, Introducing gpt-oss, August 5, 2025. Nvidia, NVIDIA Debuts Nemotron 3 Family of Open Models, December 15, 2025.
- Agents and coding. METR, Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks, March 19, 2025.
- Compute and capital. OpenAI, Announcing The Stargate Project, January 21, 2025. Reuters, DeepSeek sparks AI stock selloff; Nvidia posts record market-cap loss, January 27, 2025. OpenAI, OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, September 22, 2025. AMD, AMD and OpenAI Announce Partnership to Deploy 6 Gigawatts of AMD GPUs, October 6, 2025. OpenAI, OpenAI and Broadcom announce strategic collaboration to deploy 10 gigawatts of OpenAI-designed AI accelerators, October 13, 2025. Bloomberg News via Advisor Perspectives, Nvidia Becomes First $5 Trillion Firm, October 29, 2025. Amazon, AWS and OpenAI announce multi-year strategic partnership, November 3, 2025. Anthropic, Anthropic invests $50 billion in American AI infrastructure, November 12, 2025. SoftBank Group, Completion of Additional $22.5 Billion Investment in OpenAI, December 31, 2025.
- Chips and governance. US Bureau of Industry and Security, Department of Commerce Announces Rescission of Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, May 13, 2025. The White House, White House Unveils America’s AI Action Plan, July 23, 2025. Governor of California, Governor Newsom signs SB 53, September 29, 2025. The White House, Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence, December 11, 2025.
- Law and content. Manatt, Making Sense of the First Two Gen AI Fair Use Rulings, on the rulings of June 23 and 25, 2025. Association of American Publishers, Frequently Asked Questions re Proposed Settlement in Bartz v. Anthropic, September 5, 2025. OpenAI and The Walt Disney Company, The Walt Disney Company and OpenAI reach landmark agreement, December 11, 2025.
- Trust, safety and science. Anthropic, Signs of introspection in large language models, October 29, 2025; the underlying paper is Jack Lindsey, Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Language Models, Transformer Circuits, October 29, 2025. Anthropic, Disrupting the first reported AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign, November 13, 2025. OpenAI, Understanding neural networks through sparse circuits, November 13, 2025. Google DeepMind, Advanced version of Gemini with Deep Think officially achieves gold-medal standard at the IMO, July 21, 2025. Alexander Wei, OpenAI IMO 2025 Proofs, July 2025.